60
Understaffed Days
46
Critical Days
212
Leave Days Booked
123
Total Days Analysed

## Assumptions

John Morgan | Unavailable throughout (long-term sick leave)
Sarah Chugati | Starts 3 August 2026 · Mon/Wed/Fri · 0.6 WTE
Locums (ET, OA, OM, SY) | All contracts end 2 August 2026
Analysis period | 1 July – 31 October 2026 (123 days)

## 1. Current Baseline — No Sarah, No Locums

JM off sick. 8 partners + 5 salaried clinicians. Wednesday is at breaking point.

#### ⚠ Wednesday at Breaking Point

Zero surplus means any leave on a Wednesday takes us below minimum staffing. This is the critical bottleneck that recruitment must solve.

## 2. Post-August Baseline — Sarah Onboard, Locums Gone

Sarah Chugati adds Mon/Wed/Fri. Locums depart 2 Aug. Wednesday improves but remains tight.

Day | Available | Required | Surplus | Status
--- | --- | --- | --- | ---
Monday | 12 | 9 | +3 | OK
Tuesday | 11 | 7 | +4 | Comfortable
Wednesday | 9 | 8 | +1 | TIGHT
Thursday | 8 | 6 | +2 | TIGHT
Friday | 11 | 6 | +5 | Comfortable

## 3. Leave Pressure (Jul–Oct 2026)

212 approved leave-days already booked. Friday has the most leave but also the most surplus. Wednesday's 37 leave-days hit the tightest day.

### Worst Simultaneous Days

Date | Day | Off | Who
--- | --- | --- | ---
28 Aug | Friday | 6 | JG, JT, KS, SW, SC, VH
30 Jul | Thursday | 5 | CM, JG, JT, MP, SC
31 Jul | Friday | 5 | CM, JG, JT, LS, SC
14 Aug | Friday | 5 | FB, KW, LS, MH, VH
18 Aug | Tuesday | 5 | FB, KW, LS, MH, SW

## 4. Recruitment Priority Ranking

## 5. Recommended Day Patterns for New Recruits

Core rule: Every new recruit must include Wednesday. Patterns without it don't solve the bottleneck.

#### Mon + Wed + Thu

Mon Wed Thu
★★★ Ideal
Hits all three tightest days. Maximum impact per session.

#### Mon + Wed + Fri

Mon Wed Fri
★★★ Strong
Same as Sarah's pattern. Adds resilience on Mon/Wed.

#### Wed + Thu + Fri

Wed Thu Fri
★★☆ Good
Covers Wed + Thu. Good complement to Sarah's Mon/Wed/Fri.

#### Wed + Thu

Wed Thu
★★☆ Minimum viable
Hits both tight days. Works if other recruits cover Monday.

#### Mon + Wed

Mon Wed
★★☆ Good
Covers Wed + Mon. Needs someone else on Thursday.

#### Mon+Tue+Wed+Thu

Mon Tue Wed Thu
★★★ Maximum impact
4-day pattern. Covers all tight days plus Tuesday.

#### ❌ Patterns to Avoid

Any pattern without Wednesday — doesn't address the bottleneck. Tue+Fri only, Thu+Fri only, Mon+Tue only — these add capacity where we already have surplus while leaving Wednesday exposed.

## 6. Recommended Combinations

### With 2 New Recruits — Best Option

Mon+Wed+Thu + Mon+Wed+Fri

Wednesday goes from +1 → +3. Both Wednesday and Thursday now meet the 3-off policy target. This is the sweet spot.

### With 3 New Recruits — Maximum Resilience

Mon+Wed+Thu + Mon+Wed+Fri + Wed+Thu

Day | Surplus | Status
--- | --- | ---
Monday | +5 | Comfortable
Tuesday | +4 | Comfortable
Wednesday | +4 | Comfortable
Thursday | +4 | Comfortable
Friday | +6 | Comfortable

Minimum surplus +4 across all days. Very comfortable. Allows the 3-off policy on every day with room to spare.

## 7. The July Danger Zone ⚠

A 4-week critical period before Sarah starts and before locums leave.

4
Weeks without Sarah
3/4
July weeks SC on leave
2/4
July weeks CM on leave
2 Aug
All 4 locums depart

#### ⚠ Recommendation

If Sarah Chugati can start in late July rather than 3 August, push for it. Every extra week of coverage before the locums leave makes a difference. The combination of heavy partner leave + no Sarah + locum departure on 2 August creates a genuine risk of uncovered sessions.

## 8. Summary

1. Wednesday is the #1 recruitment priority — it's the bottleneck day and remains tight even after Sarah starts (surplus +1)
2. Thursday is #2 — tight at +2 surplus
3. Every new recruit must work Wednesday — patterns without it don't help the core problem
4. Ideal offer: Mon+Wed+Thu (3 days) — hits all three tightest days with maximum impact per session
5. With 2 recruits on Mon+Wed+Thu + Mon+Wed+Fri, Wednesday goes from +1 to +3 — this meets the 3-off policy target and is the minimum viable outcome
6. The July gap is real — 4 weeks of heavy leave before Sarah starts, with all locums departing 2 August
7. If Sarah can start late July instead of 3 August, take it